Ukraine: Why Does It Matter?

 

By Marilyn Moore

After weeks of continuous movement of tanks and troops and armaments to the east border of Ukraine, all the while saying that there was no intent to invade Ukraine, Russia invaded Ukraine three days ago.  This action, the most aggressive warmongering in Europe since World War II, was predicted by US intelligence offices and is part of Russian President Putin’s plan to reassemble the former Soviet Union, under his authority.  He begins with Ukraine, one of the republics in the former Soviet Union, which formed as a nation when the USSR fell apart.  In recent years, Ukraine has adopted governance principles more aligned with European democracies than USSR authoritarianism.  They have discussed membership in NATO, an action that Putin sees as a threat.  So, with a mighty army, Russia has invaded, and is very close to the capital city of Kyiv.  

Ukraine has an army and is resisting, with more strength and determination than some expected, perhaps including Putin.  There are anti-war demonstrations breaking out across the world, including, to Putin’s surprise and dismay, in Russian cities.  Seems that not all Russians want to go to war.  A resolution condemning the invasion was introduced in the UN Security Council; not surprisingly, it was blocked by Russia.  NATO has promised support for Ukraine, and individual countries in NATO and the EU have done the same. The weight of world opinion appears to condemn Putin’s actions.

A friend’s question yesterday, “Can he just do this, and get away with it?” is the question being asked by people everywhere, those who live in Ukraine, those who live in the countries that are just beyond Ukraine, leaders of nations throughout the world, and those whose professional lives are invested in both national security and global peace efforts.  Does might make right?  Does international law have meaning?  

At this time, no nation has contributed its own armed forces, boots on the ground.  They (and that includes NATO and the US) have provided the Ukrainian government with weapons, with training, with security intelligence, with relief funding.  The UN is present in Kyiv, providing medical relief efforts and food and shelter for those whose homes have been destroyed.  And every nation in NATO, including the US, is levying severe economic sanctions against Putin and other Russian oligarchs personally, and against the country. Shutting Russia out of the global trade system, freezing assets held in banks outside of Russia, will have a devastating impact on Russia and its people…but not immediately.  So, for the moment, the Russian military advances, the Ukrainian military resists, and bombs are flying over Kyiv.

This is a rapidly-changing situation, and it will be out of date almost at the moment I press “publish.”  I have no particular expertise in Russian history; my summary of events is based on my reading of current news stories and from my understanding of historic relationships.  I believe it is basically accurate; I also know that there are complexities and nuances I’ve most likely totally missed.  Still, I write what I know at this moment. And I write to set in place the basis for asking the question, “Why does this matter?”

So, why does this matter?  Why does a conflict between one of the world’s super powers (when it comes to weaponry) and a small neighboring country half-way around the world matter?  Why is there 24/7 coverage from every major news organization in this country and others?  Several reasons, I think, some of them geo-political, some of them economic, some of them deeply philosophical, some of them personal.

Some are concerned that this action by Putin is the first step of invading and taking over more countries, those in the ring beyond Ukraine.  They remember the first step of WWII, when Hitler started by invading and overtaking Poland, and then kept going.  Is that Putin’s plan, to begin with conquering Ukraine and then continuing to other countries?  The next ring of countries beyond Ukraine includes many in NATO, to whom every NATO country is obligated to provide military assistance by the treaty all nations signed. That includes the US, and that could mean US soldiers being deployed for active warfare in those countries.  Recent polls show just slightly over 25% of respondents in this country willing to commit troops to this conflict, but if this conflict moves to Poland, or Lithuania, or Estonia, US troops will be there, resisting Russian troops.

Some are concerned that this has the potential to escalate into a major world war, and this time, the combatants have nuclear weapons.  Not as many as at the height of the Cold War, but enough that the earth could be truly destroyed.  The specter of “mutually assured destruction” has kept the use of nuclear weapons in check for decades; there is not promise that this will continue to hold.

This matters because it once again illustrates the connectedness of the world in which we live.  Within hours of the invasion, stock markets around the world plunged.  The price of oil shot up.  Rumors of significant increases in the price of gasoline abounded, and most likely the rumors will be the reality.  Higher energy costs ripple through the economy, causing higher costs in most sectors. Yesterday, the third day of the invasion, the US stock market rebounded, as the Russian market and currency tumbled.  Ukraine is a major grain producer, and prices of grain increased dramatically, and then dropped dramatically.  Ukraine’s wheat is a major part of the grain used by the United Nations for hunger relief around the world; if production is affected, more world hunger is the result.  The UN estimates there may be more than 500,000 refugees, seeking safety in other countries, including ours.  One hundred years ago the US tried to be an isolated country during WWI; that did not hold, and it will not hold now.  We are a connected world. 

Those who are deeply committed to peace wonder why it is we (that would be the global we) cannot seem to invest the same energy in resolving conflicts peacefully as we do in creating advanced weaponry.  Can we not be better than this?  That is not a new question; Walter Cronkite asked it decades ago.  There are peaceful gatherings of peoples of all ages and faiths holding candles and uniting in voice in cities around the world, witnessing for peace.  The prayers released by major religious leaders are prayers for peace, prayers for wisdom, prayers for compassion, prayers for those whose lives are already forever disrupted.  They pray for the soul of the planet; it matters.  

And for me, it matters because of Maria.  Maria was a graduate student in a class I taught a number of years ago, and she and her husband and their children have become a part of our family.  Maria (not her real name; I don’t want to jeopardize the identity of her family) is from the Ukraine.  She and her husband and their children live in the US, but her mother and her brother and his family live in Ukraine.  Not in Kyiv, but in another large city.  Maria and her family were able to visit her family in Ukraine last summer, the first time they had seen them in more than two years.  She shares wonderful photos of her home city, its parks and fountains and beautiful buildings, and her face lights up as she talks about the place and the people.  Her mother has relatives who live in Poland who have urged her to come there where it’s safe, but her mom refused to leave Ukraine without her son and his family, and her son is of the age where he is required to stay in Ukraine to serve in the army if called upon to do so. So Maria’s family is there, and when I see the reports of bombed cities and people taking cover in subway stations and shortages of cash and food and gasoline, I see Maria’s mother and brother and his wife and family.  And they matter.

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